Wednesday, 17 June 2015

A few macro and related thoughts/charts today

Greece – ‘to accept that Greece will spend the next 42 years paying back an average of €10bn a year to its creditors. That cannot be right…It follows that Greece’s debts will be written down, the only question being whether this is done in an orderly or chaotic way...it seems absurd to suggest that a country accounting for just 2 per cent of eurozone GDP could wreck the entire enterprise. If it could, then that enterprise is not very robust'.  Good link here.  More on Greece later with the ELA rollover and the latest IMF comments...

Tension - Markit iTraxx Financial Index, a closely watched gauge of sentiment in credit markets, has surged to a 15 month high today as the intensifying Greek debt crisis unnerves investors. The index, which tracks credit default swaps on the senior debt of 30 European banks and insurers, rose three and a half basis points to 87.522 yesterday, its highest level since March 2014.

The volatility fears...interesting to read what I noted yesterday on the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Report (link here). 

Europe citizens – front page of the FT has a graphic which shows that ‘only 45% of Greeks felt like they were citizens of the EU when last surveyed, the lowest share of any member country.  Britons and Italians follow closely behind’ 



Ukraine – big bondholders write a letter to the FT saying that a ‘haircut on bonds is wrong path for Ukraine’.  Classic creditors!  In my view they need to get real...


China – slowing growth…but will still grow the equivalent of four Greece’s this year! Some great charts in this...
 ...and other Bloomberg reports:


UK deaths – not the sort of chart I would have expected…



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