Thursday, 25 June 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

Greece – agenda today: talks started at 5am BST culminating in the leaders’ summit at 2pm BST

Greece #2 – FT headline: “No sign of light after 7-hour Greek talks…Tsipras to meet bailout monitors again today — but ‘no one wants to budge’ “.  The report notes that ‘according to annotations by creditors in a detailed version of the Greek offer submitted on Monday and obtained by the FT, Mr Tsipras would have to revamp almost all of his pension reform plans to win bailout funding’.  Or as a Greek official put it: ‘We want debt relief discussions, but creditors want agreement on reforms first’.  Time for some meeting in the middle...both on the pensions front...


...and to augment the Greek proposal with creditor bond cuts too



Greece #3 – “mind-blowing” facts about Greece's economy.  Actually some nice graphics on debt/the black economy and related

And another nice Greek historic graphic :-)



(h/t @ScouseView)

European reform – continuing news from Italy where the prime minister is pushing to give the country's EUR400bn sovereign wealth fund a more aggressive mandate in an effort to spur growth. Matteo Renzi wants to appoint two Italian bankers to the fund's top jobs, and task them with boosting funding to the real economy and encouraging foreign direct investment.  Good news but have got to see more...

China - PBOC back to inject liquidity for the first time in 2-3 months, a week after the Shanghai Composite falls well over 10%...  Hmmm.  The Chinese market continues to recover a little unsurprisingly.  

And to show that stimulus is certainly not dead, South Korea steps in...
Announces a 15T Won ($13.5B) fiscal stimulus package. Will be spent on MERS impacted areas and job creation

A few final charts – US velocity of money still weak  


This Dealogic data shows that M&A volume is at its highest in H1 over the last decade save 2007...and we all know what happened after that.  Sector areas of particular focus: pharmaceuticals and oils unsurprisingly.  


Talking about resources I continue to find them top-down interesting (based on a lack of general interest)...as shown by this excellent chart via @JordanEliseo pertaining to the Australian market BUT making reference to two stocks (Billiton and Rio Tinto) which are dual-listed on London too.  I know where I see the better value between miners and financials...

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