Monday, 22 June 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today

Greece – tweet out late yesterday re today’s set of meetings from 8.30am… “New Greek proposal received by @JunckerEU, @Lagarde, @ecb. Good basis for progress at tomorrow's EuroSummit”.  Feels increasingly like some kind of can kicking down the road deal in the air…

Greece #2 – some alternative strategic views:
(        “even if Athens and its creditors reach a deal in the coming days, it would only set the stage for additional negotiations later in the year, prolonging the impact of a real or potential Greek exit on Greece's partners in the currency union”.  Link here

(      Eurozone doomed whether Greece leaves or stays, a report in The Telegraph showed (link here). 

Favourite Greek/related cartoons I have come across so far –



Of course this has not meant the euro has been mega weak...on the contrary much has been priced in and speculative shorts (as shown below) have been covered pushing it up.  I would say that a fundamental value versus the US dollar is around 1.25...so a high single digit discount as per today feels about right given some of the Europe debate at the moment...



In other news...

China – Dragon Boat day so market closed.  Meanwhile a good statistic to show the extent of the recent crash: “The mainland premium on dual-listed shares reached an almost six-year high on June 10, when Chinese A shares traded 43 percent higher than Hong Kong H shares. The premium has since narrowed to about 27 percent after mainland shares’ rout last week” (Bloomberg)

Japan – I never tire of looking at Japanese demographic charts…still totally amazing shift over time


US – surprise index popping up a touch: amazing what a lower US dollar can help to do

(h/t @sobata416)

Australia - A third of Australia is in recession, PwC finds at this link.  Scrape below the surface and it is amazing some of the troubles you will find...

Commodities – fascinating YTD performance chart via @David_Stendahl.  Certainly inspiring re places to look...


Note how 'hogs' are one of the worst performers..and hence it has impacts like this: 



Africa – size of and hence potential over time…


(h/t @ValaAfshar)


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