Monday, 8 June 2015

A few macro and related stories today

A few macro and related stories today... 

Greece – ‘Even if Greece muddles through until August, it faces a financing shortfall of at least 25 billion euros through the end of 2016’. Yes, it is certainly not over. Nice article here.  

Grexit – As per a story in today’s FT “One-third of large investors expect a Greek exit from the eurozone…According to a poll of 78 institutional investors, including international pension funds, private banks and intermediaries, 34 per cent believe Greece will leave the eurozone before the end of May next year” Big week this week in terms of trying to make some progress on the whole Greece issue.  

China - Imports to China fell 17.6 per cent year-on-year (in US dollar terms), nearly twice as bad as forecasts for a 10 per cent tumble. This is the seventh straight months of falling imports, suggesting consumption in China continues to wane.  More rate cuts please is the common reaction to all this...which is why the Chinese market is up this morning: 

Of course, as pointed out by @S_Rabinovitch, Chinese exports have not really been a huge net contributor to GDP growth for a while...

Japan’s GDP growth was revised up. A recalculation of business spending meant the economy likely grew at an annualized 3.9% in the first quarter. That easily beat expectations of 2.7% growth but still does not suggest to me that the economy is sustainably better...and of course this also means the Japanese market may stop going up...

Meanwhile other prices are going up too as per this piece in today's Financial Times

Price of ‘Buffett lunch’ vs Berkshire Hathaway share price kind of interesting


Will hope spring eternal for the US economic surprise index?

(h/t @NickatFP)

And the highest return asset allocation class in the UK?  Forests...

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