Wednesday, 24 June 2015

A few macro and related stories today

A few macro and related stories today...

Greece – Juncker, Draghi, Lagarde to meet in Brussels later today and to invite Tsipras for talks. IMF Chief Lagarde Said To Tell IMF Board She's Optimistic On Greece Deal

Greece #2 – want to read the Greek proposal?  You can here. Thoughts on this? ‘Main sticking point in Brussels is Greek demand for concrete commitment to restructure debt to ECB’ plus timing: ‘Greek authorities have already begun preparations for a hasty and potentially rancorous parliamentary debate over the weekend amidst growing signs Mr Tsipras’ new reform plan — which would be presented to eurozone leaders on Thursday — faces fierce resistance at home’ (FT)

Great related cartoon...


‘Frexit’ – too many ‘xxxexit’s around… Better to sort out Greek situation this year, UK next year and then the others will fall away…

New phrase from the leader in the French polls Madame Le Pen: ‘Frexit'.  Link here.  

UK – member of the Monetary Policy Committee talking about ‘the Bank of England should be ready to raise borrowing costs as early as August’. Rising wages, low unemployment, tighter labour market the justification.  I don't see it myself.  

Of course many central banks around the world have been cutting - in fact an amazing number this year (in this great chart via @MktOutperform): 


I have not seen a central bank assets as a % of GDP for a while.  Interesting how Europe/the UK/US has converged around 30% of GDP...but look at Switzerland and Japan:

Of course a lot of excitement re the Japanese market hitting a new post 1996 high BUT if you print enough money for long enough...


(h/t @moved_average)


Russia – not only the #1 oil supplier now to China but Saudi have fallen to #3.  Can you guess #2?  Link here for details.  


Turning to China, I noticed this on Bloomberg which has continued its bounceback from the big falls of last week: 

'Bullish wagers on the China 50 ETF have increased to the most expensive level versus bearish ones since the contracts’ debut in February marked the start of equity-linked options trading in China. Options traders are doubling down on bets that monetary stimulus and reforms by state-owned companies will keep the rally intact, undeterred by strategists who say China’s equity market is a bubble poised to burst'

Of course what China does matters for us all... 

A final couple of graphics.  Third cut of US Q1 GDP today but talking about Q2...


...and finally about privacy and websites, I liked this: 



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