Tuesday, 23 June 2015

A few macro and related stories today

Greece – The talking continues…hopes of a deal by Thursday. 

A few headlines: “Greek Gov’t Spokesman: Greece Will Continue Tough Talks To Conclude Deal – BBG “.  “Greek PM Tsipras: Solution Should Include Economic Viability, Debt Sustainability & Growth Issues – RTRS”.  “German C’llr Merkel: No Talk Of Bailout Extension, Hopes Thursday Meeting Is Just To Take Note Of Eurogroup Agreement – RTRS”.  “IMF Chief Lagarde: Still `Enormous' Amount Of Work To Do On Greece – BBG”

Greece #2 – my take: compromise makes huge sense but aside from the technical on pensions and VAT the real question for me is whether there is any debt restructuring or not.  If not then this is all just the can being kicked down the road.

European markets - Monday's 3.7% rally was the biggest daily gain seen in DAX futures since 3rd August 2012, 725 sessions.  Meanwhile the euro is down to 1.127 as GS out (again) talking about parity…no doubt certain investment banks will be highlighting weaker bond yields / higher equities play (I would prefer to be more selective here - I did add some exposure last week). 

Ukraine - IMF To Meet With Ukraine Creditors & Gov’t In Washington Next Week.  However on the Ukraine a testy conference call yesterday as per this link

Great graphic on the composition of US corporate cash balances - 

China – another volatile session in China, losses extended. China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun, P): 49.6 (exp 49.4 prev 49.2).  More positive components but hardly rampant given overall score.  Still a touch better (and I do note the even more positive China Beige Book review on the Chinese economy out today): 

Meanwhile apparently China's Economy May Bottom In Q1/Q2 Next Year as per the Securities Times. 

Talking about the emerging markets...a nice Economist graphic on growth levels...

And finally - from today's Financial Times - US whiskey sales have been very strong.  Good branding...

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