Friday, 12 June 2015

A few macro and related stories today

A few macro and related stories today:

Greece / haircut - German Government Mulls Capital Control If Greek Bankruptcy Occurs, Also Discussing Debt Haircut (Bild).  Finally the (re)use of the haircut word.  I note too same phrase uttered re Ukraine in last 12 hours too.  About time/reality.

Greece / IMF - Overnight, the International Monetary Fund said there had been no progress on talks with Greece. It even pulled its technical team out of the negotiations, with one official complaining about an "air of unreality" in the discussions. Hmm: have they only just noticed?

Saying all of that...it is interesting just how low retail investor sentiment has got as shown by yesterday's AAII bullish sentiment indicator: 


Volatile China flows  - according to data from EPFR cited by Fast FT, foreigners withdrew $7.1bn from funds tracking China in the week ending Wednesday. The outflow dwarfs a record $4.6bn inflow in the last week of May. Blame based on lack of immediate entry into MSCI EM indices. 

Still ALL China A-shares stocks as per yesterday were at/above their 200 day moving average.  All!



What has not showed any reduction in flows is the Chinese overseas property investment shift as detailed here.  A striking China influenced chart...



US retail sales – interesting comment on yday’s numbers, specifically re revisions: ‘But March's 0.5 per cent rise was revised up to a 0.9 per cent jump, while April's 0.1 per cent decline was revised to a gain of 0.1 per cent, according to figures from the Commerce Department…The importance of those revisions can't be overstated because they change the entire narrative about the US consumer’ (Capital Economics)

Undoubtedly assisted by the above there has been an uptick too in US Q2 GDP hopes...


Talking about the US economy increasingly September is the interest rate rise preference choice.  Still not convinced myself...


Striking lower US Treasury market liquidity chart:


Would agree with this comment in today's Financial Times that a balanced budget in the UK is unlikely to be consistently achieved (and for reasons way beyond just demographics). 


A couple of final graphics.  The best letter in today's Financial Times on HSBC and a lack of Hong Kong dollars!

The rise of uber in China: stunning!


(h/t @HaidiLun)

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