Monday, 11 May 2015

Macro and related thoughts today

Some macro and related thoughts today...

Following the interest rate cut in China @RealPhatDragon noted 'Another 50bps in cuts needed to get real rates below long run average: minimum objective for PBOC given macro setting'
Now China has to encourage consumption and not investment


Markets are still very firm in China as Fast FT notes today - I still fear potential volatility after such strength and hence am being very selective about my Chinese/HK stock exposure: 
China's Shenzhen Composite is now up two-thirds this year, another milestone for the year's top-performing equity market.
The $3.5tn index, known for its "new economy" stocks rather than the state-backed companies on the $5.3tn Shanghai Composite, is up 3.8 per cent in late Monday trading. That takes its 2015 gain to 66.7 per cent.
Stat of the day: only 2% of the Chinese population pay income tax apparently! 


Staying in Asia, Japan upping the ante (growing desperation in my view...)


I noted in Stories we should be thinking about yesterday the rise and rise of India and other less celebrated parts of the world.  Here is another indication of burgeoning strength:



Good dynamic (not!) between Merkel and Vlad at the VE celebrations in Russia...


Big week for Greece...headlines look worse and worse...

Marc poll for @EFSYNTAKTON Is govt's negotiating strategy correct? Yes 54.2% (vs 81.5% in Feb) No 43.3% (vs 14.2% in Feb)


ONE TROIKA SCENARIO INCLUDES GREECE PAYING STAFF IN IOUS: WELT

UK 50/50 on Europe…on export destination.  Nice graphic from the front page of today's FT


Finally...Cocoa changes.  Been wanting to write a longer piece on this commodity.  Nice graphic to help inspire this. 




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