Wednesday, 27 May 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece - I really liked this story: 'What Would Happen If Greece Doesn’t Pay the IMF: Q&A':

‘Failure to pay the IMF would entitle some of Greece’s other creditors, including the European bailout fund, to declare a default. They would then have the option to demand immediate repayment of all their loans, a process known as acceleration. Other lenders could then follow suit. While calling a default preserves creditors’ claims, acceleration -- the bit that hurts -- isn’t automatic. Each creditor decides on its own’.

FX – More than ever, countries are relying on weaker currencies to boost their growth prospects in the global low interest rate environment”

I would agree on this…worrying reliance.  Market volatility and the higher $ interlinked.  Take Japan.  Everyone focuses on the recent market run...

...but look at the precipice the yen is on (h/t for the chart @RaoulGMI).  140+ here we come...

Talking about FX matters interesting to see that as per Swift data the yuan retains 5th position in global payments (link here). I think we can guess the general direction.  

Meanwhile talking about China...a couple of 'market boom conditions' charts: 

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