Thursday, 9 April 2015

A few macro thoughts today

So payment day #1 in April for Greece to the IMF...and undoubtedly bigger challenges await.  


Meanwhile, FinMin Secretary Theocarakis told Euroworking Group in Brussels that state funds last only until April 24...

So what about the Greece-Russia meeting yesterday?  I liked this summary‘Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras moral support and long-term cooperation but no financial aid on Wednesday’

Staying with Europe and too much debt I see this on Ukraine from the five major creditors of the country: 

‘A detailed proposal is being developed by the Committee that provides Ukraine with the necessary financial liquidity support it has requested whilst also meeting the objectives of the Noteholders without any principal debt reductions’.  Dream on in my view…a substantial haircut is coming...

Asia volatility – HK up as much as 6% earlier today to highest since early ‘08 (now nearer +3%) as Chinese investors start to switch from Chinese listed to HK listed versions of the same stock (the latter still at a 25% discount).  Of course maybe Shanghai is just catching up on Hong Kong as per this 5 year chart...


A few final charts...will have some more thoughts on the start of the US earnings season later.  Certainly a good amount of concern before (correctly in my view): 


The signalling from the German bund - US Treasury spread is still Europe cautious...


Fascinating emerging market demographic statistics.  Got to watch the impact of a greying population everywhere...

And finally...who does and does not take their holidays?  (What do you mean this is a pretty good insight into relative economic dynamism!!!) 

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