Tuesday, 14 April 2015

A few macro charts today.

A few macro and related stories today...ahead of a busy (US) corporate reporting day.  Of course recall about earnings that they tend to get worse versus initial expectations as the year goes on...


Greece – FT report that Greek government has ‘decided to withhold Euro2.5bn of payments due to the IMF in May and June if no agreement is struck…no alternative (to a default)’.  However day of denials in Greece: Denies it's preparing for early elections (Bild), denies planning to default on IMF debt if talks fail (FT).  Watch this space…a deal is required.  

China – a bit calmer in the overnight Asian markets but (via Fast FT) analysts at Citigroup argue that even the mainland indices remain attractive, as price-to-earnings ratios are still below average. The forward P/E ratio for the Shanghai market is 16.4, versus a 10-year average — a period that includes the 2007 bubble — of 19.1.  Of course when you have to include bubbles in your calculations anything is possible…

Staying with China, ahead of the important GDP release tomorrow (Wed) here’s a good preview via Bloomberg (link here).  

Meanwhile much of the broader Asia zone has been more times in deflation than not...


Not a good read on the region's (or indeed world) economy.  

Of course a pop up in European inflation numbers could be perceived as reflecting a regional recovery but my guess is it is still far too specific / centred on easy comps.  



Puts the ultra-low European bond yields into sharp relief...


UK election impact  - BRC UK retail sales rose 3.2% last month on a lfl basis versus the same month a year earlier, when they had declined 1.7%.  Report said that ‘any retail recovery is built on confidence and uncertainty around the outcome of the election continues to cast a shadow over the long term recovery of the sector’.  Too right.  Opinion polls still very mixed. 


No comments:

Post a Comment