Tuesday, 17 March 2015

My favourite three charts from today's Fund Manager Survey

I came across this quote from George Soros today:

‘Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting 
the obvious and betting on the unexpected’

Of course George is absolutely correct as you would expect from one of the most successful investors of the last few decades...and which brings us nicely to today's BoA-ML Fund Manager Survey always an interesting insight to the thoughts of the professional investing masses.  

Three key charts then from today's report: 

Can we really be that surprised given the ETF flows we have been noting into European equities that the US allocation should fall so sharply.  That is a big fall though and not proportionately seen since c. 2007.  

One US asset remains a crowded trade however and that is the US dollar.  That's a big gap to Eurozone peripheral debt in second place...

As for overall positioning this monthly allocation chart confused me somewhat given Materials have subsequently corrected.  Nevertheless ex Energy and the Emerging Markets (remaining way out-of-favour) there was a bit of a cyclical shift consistent with a bit more confidence.

 So what to make of the above?  Well the contrarian bets are a lower US dollar, relative opportunities in US equities and Energy/Emerging Market allocations.

Hmm, maybe some assets/allocations Mr Soros would be all over at the moment...

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