Wednesday, 11 March 2015

Macro charts and stories today

A macro and related stories today...

Euro – so post day #2 of QE and the euro is <1.07.  The flipside of this is that the US$ has gone up very fast and the stock market is catching up with the impact on earnings of this now…hence some of the volatility yesterday.  All seems kind of obvious to me...no action is without a consequence.  I remain lightly exposed. 


Markets technical – S&P below 50 day moving average, rarely turns here, tends to get a bit worse first. Nice chart from Bespoke


Greece – today’s set of headlines are focused on ‘pressing the country’s social security funds to hand over hundreds of millions of euros…to ensure that pensions and civil servants’ salaries are paid this month’.  Nice… Allegedly EU officials to look at Greece’s books today.  Can kicking only still so far...


Asian exports – struggling...showing that you cannot rely on the rest of the world...


 ...which means that surely more stimulus is likely given the latest Chinese data on retail sales, industrial output, urban fixed asset investment all below hopes. 

Retail sales rose 10.7 per cent year-on-year, versus expectations of an 11.6 per cent rise, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Industrial output rose 6.8 per cent year-on-year, versus expectations of a 7.7 per cent rise. It had risen a cumulative 8.3 per cent in December.

Urban fixed asset investment rose 13.9 per cent year-on-year, versus expectations of a 15 per cent rise.

Japan – not great headlines.  Am I surprised?  Not...hello USD/JPY 140...

USD/JPY At 140 Needed For BoJ To Reach Inflation Goal -- BBG Survey
BoJ’s Shirai: High Degree Of Uncertainty In Japanese Capex & Private Consumption – RTRS

And finally...

Bitcoin use very China centred – what a chart from today's Fast FT.  Still a bit undecided about bitcoin to be honest.  I like the concept and what it stands for.  Kind of interesting that China is the one running with it...


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