I concluded the above linked write-up with the observation that I believed in the cost-cutting led turnaround plan and finally judging by today's results it appears to be kicking in with ebitda margins anticipated to rise over the next four years driven (at least initially) by cost cutting efforts:
This ebitda margin contribution is useful as the underlying 2015 guidance is for sales and ebitda approximately at 2014 levels. Clearly there is a slight inconsistency given the progressive ebitda margin observation but my belief is that the company is guiding in a mildly conservative fashion especially given certain headwinds including trying to offset the impact of plunging currencies in Russia/Ukraine plus other issues like extra pension expense.
Crop protection/seed businesses are never going to be very cheap but this year's x14 EV/ebit rating and next year's prospective x12s EV/ebit still feels like good value to me - and of course a discount to stocks like Monsanto (who I last wrote about here). A return to the (to use the US$ quote) US$70-80 share price range feels correct and possible to me. I remain long.