Tuesday, 10 February 2015

A few stories today - Greece, sentiment, Chinese inflation & complex EM growth rates

A few stories today ahead of a lot of interesting corporate reporting. 

Greece – UK Chancellor Osbourne notes ‘Risks TO UK & World From Greek Crisis Are Growing’.  Very true.

Greece #2 – provocative quotes a-plenty in this piece: ‘Greece's leaders stun Europe with escalating defiance’. Still searching for some leadership… 

Despite all the above...I see the Bespoke investor sentiment measure has gone bullish again.  Hmm. 

China – CPI 5 year low China CPI (YoY) Jan: 0.8% (exp 1.0% prev 1.5%), China PPI (YoY) Jan: -4.3% (exp -3.8% prev -3.3%) = expect more stimulus. 

Some nice detail on the Chinese inflation statistics in this in this report on Bloomberg:

Food prices rose 1.1 percent in January from a year earlier, less than half the pace in the past six months. Transport and communications costs declined 2.2 percent...Purchasing prices fell across all categories, led by a 9.9 percent slump in fuels. Producer prices dropped the most since October 2009, led by a 17.5 percent plunge in mining and an 8.6 percent decline in raw materials.

UK retail growth – interesting comment from KPMG following survey: ‘Demand is now almost solely driven by discounts, with shoppers very reluctant to buy goods at full price in the hope that yet another sale could be just around the corner’.  The UK is not back to normal growth/economic situation

EM growth – methodology change means India grows faster than China as per this link...
...but note the Indian PM suffered a big state election reversal this morning as Fast FT noted:

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personally congratulated Arvind Kejriwal, the leader of the Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party, after AAP won a landslide victory in Delhi's local elections.

Value/growth in the emerging markets BUT never a straight line.  There are also some sector differentials that are worth noting as this report from GaveKal Capital notes. 

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