Monday, 5 January 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 05/01/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. The early morning headlines are all dominated by euro.  Well you can see why: it is a big moment when the currency goes sub 1.20 as shown by this 10 year chart:

Of course this move reflects much of the policy-making and press turmoil that has been occurring over the last months - and which I have reviewed here day-by-day on Financial Orbit.  As laid out in my 15 Macro Thoughts for 2015 (and other articles) my view would be that US dollar strength is a growing issue too and this complicates policy-making around the world and hence provides that pro-volatility backdrop I am also anticipating for 2015. 

Via The Daily Shot chart distribution I thought this graphic on searches for 'Grexit'  was good on the basis that as shown by the FX decline fear surrounding the 'Europe concept' is reaching a fever-pitch...

...and talking about Greece, what a great graphic:

2. And then there were enhanced fears of deflation in Europe following the weaker-than-expected German inflation numbers:

Yes, there are a few challenges in Europe. 

3, Nice global forecasted growth split chart

4.  The US may have ranked well in the above...but Monday was not a great day at all:

I liked this from Fast FT on the day when WTI went below US$50 : 'For a snapshot of how the slumping oil price is driving US stocks, look no further than Allegheny Technologies. The US manufacturer, whose products include titanium alloys and steel, is the only company among the ten biggest fallers on the S&P 500 whose fortunes don't depend on the oil and gas industry'.

5. So what happens next?  Consumer confidence/spending is improving...

...and at least this measure of sentiment was not overly bullish. All to play for.  I still believe in volatile but positive stock picking market for 2015. 

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