Friday, 16 January 2015

Charts and thoughts today - the Swissie, Japan's challenges & a worrying diffusion index

What a big day yesterday.  Well the Swissie has retraced a little overnight but - let's face it - in the broader context of yesterday's move this is still puny.

One more chart on the Swissie.  Always good to see the trade-weighted exchange rates.  Exporters of the world are facing different influences.  

Of course you look at the above and inevitably the question of the yen comes up.  Now from any element of a mean-reversion perspective the Japanese currency should rally from here - especially as (amusingly to me) it is regarded as a 'safe haven'. Sure enough you have seen the yen pop up to last couple of month highs against the US dollar...

...and of course this puts pressure on the Nikkei:

I remain short the yen and fundamentally - based on how I see the policy crunch in Japan developing further - this still feels correct.  It strikes me though that sub 16,000 points the Nikkei is starting to look more interesting on the long side (anticipating a new fall in the yen).  

Otherwise further noises in China of new legs to the corruption crackdown - and this has overhung some areas of the market like the Macau gambling and property stocks.  I will be gaining lots of insights into Hong Kong and related early next week due to travel. 

Chart of the day so far for me is probably this one from Gavekal Capital who nicely indicate some of the real pressures on global equities.  Never good to see a diffusion index looking like this...far too narrow. Given some of the forced policy choices and debates noted above, we should not be surprised.  

Of course there is always somewhere that is worse.  The Venezuela 5 year CDS spread is somewhat firm.

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