Thursday, 15 January 2015

Blackrock - its fundamental active equity fund managers do badly again

Normally there is just one performance table that really interests me in the Blackrock quarterly numbers and that is this one...showing yet again the ugly recent performance of their fundamental active equity managers versus passive or 'scientific' options.

As a fundamental active investor this should be a bit of a worry...but as I talked about in one of my 15 Macro Thoughts for 2015(link here) I see 2015 as being a great year for active investors mainly because of some of the distortions that have helped passive generally perform so well.

Of course this is no disaster for Blackrock given their iShares and other index/passive businesses as detailed below:

But is the stock cheap?  Well margins and operating income went up and they continued to pay a healthy 70%+ of profits out (2.2% dividend yield)...

...but they still trade on c. x12s EV/ebit prospectively.  No disaster but not an immediate and obvious bargain given my active investing (and general market volatility) expectations. Looking at the chart US$320 and then US$300 worth noting down for a re-review but otherwise I will stay on the sidelines for now. 

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