Monday, 5 January 2015

Asia today and charts today

So the first day back at work for many (but not Financial Orbit of course!) and the early morning headlines are all dominated by euro.  Well you can see why: it is a big moment when the currency goes sub 1.20 as shown by this 10 year chart:


Of course this move reflects much of the policy-making and press turmoil that has been occurring over the last months - and which I have reviewed here day-by-day on Financial Orbit.  As laid out in my 15 Macro Thoughts for 2015 (and other articles) my view would be that US dollar strength is a growing issue too and this complicates policy-making around the world and hence provides that pro-volatility backdrop I am also anticipating for 2015. 

Via The Daily Shot chart distribution I thought this graphic on searches for 'Grexit'  was good on the basis that as shown by the FX decline fear surrounding the 'Europe concept' is reaching a fever-pitch...


...and hence stock picking opportunities will naturally result.  

Sticking with Europe I note the 'Brexit' angle is potentially one step closer as per today's Financial Times...although there is a General Election for the Conservative party to win first I would also observe: 


Asian markets have been relatively sanguine despite the above volatility in the euro (and oil prices reaching a new five-and-a-half year high).  A few quick observations:

Chinese sentiment remains high - a new five year high and this interesting snippet via Fast FT:

The Shanghai market has an upward limit of 10 per cent on individual stocks. Right now it looks as though the entire energy sector could hit that limit: 19 of the 34 energy stocks have hit the limit and, on average, the sector is up a staggering 9.7 per cent. 

However I notice a fascinating observation from the People's Daily that consumer prices may be negative in 2015.  

As for Japan the yield on five-year Japanese bonds dropped to a record low 0.025 percent and I note this interesting report on Japanese property on a nationwide basis starting to struggle to show appreciation scope (link here).  The manufacturing PMI numbers were nothing special either given the yen's huge decline:



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