Wednesday, 17 December 2014

FedEx - still waiting patiently for the 'right' share price level

It has never been quite the right time for me to buy FedEx since I launched Financial Orbit.  Given the share price chart over the last 18 months or so I really should have purchased the stock on any minor bout of weakness... what about today's pullback as shown on the far right hand side of the chart?

Well, what did the company say?  At a headline level there was nothing disastrous or newly unexpected (given that the company earlier in the month talked about the distorting effect on package delivery due to the West Coast), for example (sourced from Seeking Alpha):

3% revenue gain in its Express segment during FQ3;
U.S. package volume was up 7% during the period;
Revenue in the Ground segment rose 8% to $3.06B;
Company-wide operating margin +120 bps to 8.5% on gains from higher volume;
Share repurchases made by the company during FQ2 added $0.16 to EPS;
FedEx backs its previous outlook for FY15 EPS of $8.50-$9.00

The challenge was more that expectations were just a bit too hot.  Even anticipating a bit of positive seasonality in their second half with Christmas parcel deliveries and the like the company is trading on x13 EV/ebit for FY14/15. Not a disaster especially with a balance sheet with debt only around x1 ebitda but you would prefer something closer to a US$150 share price / sub x12 forward EV/ebit even if the company expects 'global economic broaden with the US leading and emerging markets picking up. We expect global growth of 3% in calendar ’15'.

Pacing through the conference call did not provide too much extra insight beyond the GDP forward profile comment so I guess I am waiting for a sub US$150 print.  

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