Friday, 28 November 2014

Asia today - FX, Nov performance, China frenzy & Black Friday

I could muse on the latest Japanese inflation data (core) falling back again...and hence the challenges to Abenomics...but this chart below nicely captures the de facto breakdown in normal policy evolution in the country.  Classic regional competitors like Korea and Taiwan will be looking to weaken their currency too...and that is how we slide into a currency war.  China's relative revaluation also shown below - of course they have underlying structural positives and are coming from a fundamentally weaker position nevertheless the Chinese authorities will not want their currency to only go up.

(h/t @TomOrlik)

Turning to Asian markets today, well Australia unsurprisingly had a shocker...

(h/t @DavidStutt)

...and a poor November too.  I remain short the ASX as a hedge for some of my recently established long mining positions in companies like BHP Billiton.  

Now linking the first chart above and this general market shift is that the Chinese move has been without a big downward FX stimulus.  Perhaps not surprising to read this great comment via @RANsquawk: "Employees from #Chinese brokerages complain they have to work overnight to process applications for new trading acc's!"

I smiled at this via @EKaiserReuters about an alternative description about the derivations of 'Black Friday' via a Singaporean retail publication! 

Despite the above I think 'global Black Friday' is here to stay.  It is not only going to be the US figures (below) that will be showing an upward trend...

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