So earnings season...how is it looking at this late stage? Well from a S&P500 perspective a near 68% 'beat' proportion is 'above the long-term average of 63% and is greater than the average over the past four quarters of 67%' as per Thomson Reuters.
Well...that's ok. What I find interesting is that we have seen (admittedly slowing) downward earnings revision with full year 2014 S&P500 earnings growth 8.7% down compared to 10.8% hopes at the start of the year. Interesting that two of the three upward earnings revision sectors (health care and utilities) are amongst the best sector performers year-to-date. Sometimes earnings revision does work!
here) is 48% which matches recent averages...but it is the 2014 earnings growth revisions which more catch the eye. Perfectly conceivable that we end up sub 5% in my view. No wonder Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole speech had a certain tone to it...
Hardly that surprising given the level of relative economic dynamism as nicely captured in the aforementioned Mr Draghi's speech yesterday by this chart:
Anyhow, to the trades for this week:
Purchases / adds / buys to cover:
Carlsberg - I bought my inaugural position in the Danish-listed beverage company after their troubled Q2 statement impacted by Russian trading conditions (link here).
Volatility - the return to historically low volatility levels induced me to buy back some of the volatility contracts I sold just a few weeks ago. Yes...it has been some sentiment turnaround...
Sells / take profits / short initiations:
Dollar General - as discussed here I sold more entire position crystalising a nice profit.
Royal Bank of Scotland - following a positive broker view (on provisions write-backs!) I took some profit on the positions added at the sentiment low a few months ago. I still retain a position and remain hopeful of closer to 400p for my remaining positions.