Wednesday, 20 August 2014

Carlsberg - do you buy today?

I titled my last Carlsberg report 'the inevitable Russian rouble impact' (link here) and opined that:

the shares trade on x11.6 EV/ebit for FY14e with a 1.1% dividend yield (some progression was announced here but still a c. 20% payout ratio only).  The valuation is getting there and improvements are being seen...but the more compelling opportunity to buy remains at DKK530 and then DKK500 given general volatilities (the Russian rouble at a 5 year low today for example) and the slightly shabby cashflow generation recently'

Well the chance is undoubtedly going to come today to play given where the share is...


...and today's Q2 statement which observes reasons for why to pull back reported operating and adjusted net profit hopes.  


Here is one other quick observation though.  The positive price-mix continues apace...and with the flat price-mix in Western Europe, in Russia (!), Eastern Europe and Asia they are all high single digit.  
 That is interesting...and why the above advice still holds.  A day for a starter position?  Despite the scary technical look of the Carlsberg 3 year chart sub DKK500...yes.

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