Monday, 25 August 2014

Asia today - Kuroda at Jackson Hole, renminbi use and South Korea's long-term challenge...

Asia today starts with a couple of interesting comments, over the weekend, by the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the Jackson Hole meeting:

"We at the Bank of Japan do not think it necessary to change our economic forecasts for coming years...if there is anything which could derail our course toward 2% inflation target we would not hesitate to change or adjust (but for now) we will continue our current monetary policy”

An interesting comment and suggests that more stimulus may be NOT around the corner.  Look though at the signalling from the currency markets...the yen is falling back down to a big level:

I think this continues (which is why I am short the yen).  From a Japanese stock selection perspective staying long the exporters such as Sony and Toyota would be my instinct.  

If Abenomics have proved ultimately slightly disappointing it is still insightful that there has been a more than subtle shift in Japanese economic labo(u)r force participation rates which is a social / cultural change.  Not quite a 'third arrow' but getting there...

What else is of interest today in Asia?  Well @chloechotv notes on the mixed-at-best Chinese housing market that:

'Yikes! Beijing sees first 0 down payment property promotion. Developers’ 1H sales lower than expected, more companies may follow, Reorient'

Meanwhile the growth and growth of renminbi settlement and usage continues apace:

(h/t @aaroncareaga)

Finally, as per this report, "South Korea’s fertility rate is so low that the country’s population could go the way of the dinosaurs by 2750, according to a new simulation commissioned by the National Assembly in Seoul". 

2750 is a suitably longer-term focused theme! 

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