Friday, 29 August 2014

Asia today - Japan bad numbers special

Asia today has to start with Japan and all the disappointing numbers overnight.  The one that really captures my attention was the trend in consumption...which is down for four successive months since the tax rise:


(Source: Fast FT)

If policy-makers are wondering why 'core' inflation in Japan is stalled at 1.3% and the retail and industrial data also out earlier today was below expectations they now have a clear view: the need for extra stimulus is very clear.  

And the yen should get weaker.  It is beached at an interesting level currently but my analysis of the data suggests it should really fall into the 110-120 range against the US dollar to help with this process. 


Of course who can help Japan out?  It is the Chinese of course judging by this data...


Such is the changing leadership in Asia...

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