Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Charts today: fear/greed, emerging market outflows, bonds and gold

Some charts which I find interesting today.

I noted a lot of comments about what the put/call indicator may not be as pessimistic as other sentiment measures.  The stars are rarely fully aligned...but similarly people are worried, you can see that not just in the market action but also in the column inches attached to such market moves.  I liked this chart from CNN, especially the evolution on the right hand column over the last year.  Keep stock picking in my view. 

So how much of the 2009-10 emerging market inflows will now become outflows?  Certainly further scope for more monies to come out but given the structural opportunities versus the developed world over a true investment lifetime, any capitulation is a major opportunity.  As above, being specific in choices feels correct now.

And to help with this, I liked this emerging market grouping chart - this is the sort of differentiation investors need to think about, although I would ultimately do this more at the stock, sector and theme level than the country one.

(h/t @davidkeo)

And the region with positive real bond yields at the moment is...everywhere except Japan.  Am I that excited though about bonds as an investment?  Even with market volatility: no.  I prefer to hold cash which tactically I can apply to other asset classes.

Ever think that Europe is a mess?  I enjoyed this decision-making tree chart. 

Two final charts on gold.  Sourced from here, this precious metal derivatives exposure chart tells us something gold bugs have known for a while: JPM have the material role. 

And gold's longer-term value relative to the DJIA?  Reasonable versus the last 'winter' Kondratieff cycle period.  I remain optimistic about gold/gold related investments


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