Friday, 31 January 2014

Some interesting charts today: US GDP, Japanese inflation and EM ratios

Charts that caught my attention early on Friday. 

US GDP split showed a strong consumption trend...but a sharp business investment turnaround (inventory adjustments again?)  These figures will be subject to revision but as a consumer insight it is a positive and maybe has helped influence the Fed's taper decisions.


But how much is anticipated?  This caught my interest.  A good amount of hope is factored into the US. 


Japan is one of the few major markets open in Asia as it is Chinese New Year.  A good amount of overnight ink has been spilled on the inflation momentum as this Sober Link chart shows.  Surely a good sign for Abenomics and the general stimulus of the Japanese economy? 


As always statistics need to be looked at closely, especially year-on-year statistics. On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, core prices actually fell 0.1% last month - the first monthly decline in nine months.  Japan - after the big macro shifts and returns of 2013 - remains a detail market in 2014.  On this front, some interesting corporate reporting today from the country, which will be covered in another posting. 

Emerging markets remain volatile.  I liked the below graphic from today's Financial Times which shows two of the more important statistics: reserve coverage and current account balance.  Turkey and South Africa looking more vulnerable than average and Indonesia worth keeping an eye on.  Note though that Argentina would not have stood out...you always need to think about many other factors too.  Another indication it is a detail world in 2014. 
 


 

1 comment:

  1. I'd buy the ruble off that CAB chart if my platform offered it.

    ReplyDelete