Wednesday, 15 January 2014

China...the contrast of a 7%+ growth economy with the West

If you read the headlines the news that Chinese banks' new loans for December fell 23 per cent month-on-month would suggest a 'bit of a problem'...and suggest that big interbank spike during the month really did have a problem.

Let's not forget though that the rise and rise of the shadow banking system has blurred the usefulness of this statistic with Reuters noting that:

'The new yuan lending took about 51.4 per cent of the social financing, the lowest amount in history and 0.6 percentage point lower than the previous year'

The more interesting and insightful statistic was that total social financing - a measure of funds raised by companies and related in the overall Chinese economy - rose to a record level of 17.3 trillion Yuan or a rise of around 9.5%. 

Such a rise in de facto lending contrasts markedly with what we see in the West where lending growth remains moribund (perhaps correctly given accumulated debts).  Ok, the shadow banking system is not perfect...but it is part of the growth of the system in China (see my write-up last month here). 

Another contrast is on wage growth.  I came across this insightful tweet on Twitter:
'26 chinese provinces adjusted minimum wages in 2013 by an an average of 18%. The Growth is the same with 2012, but lower than 22% in 2011'

(h/t @weigu)

It is a different world in China as befits a 7%+ growth economy...the rise and rise of the Chinese consumer continues...and possibly the Chinese economy too. 

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