Thursday, 30 January 2014

Bernanke's last a fake Fed

You know the scenario.  It is the bosses' last week.  He is chairing his final big meeting.  Power has kind of already seeped away to his successor but he remains nominally in charge. 

So how do you play this last meeting?  The big battles are ahead in the future, so you suppress your natural thoughts, smile sweetly and agree with the soon-to-be-departed head honcho

I thought about these natural meeting instincts when I saw this one line FOMC meeting summary:

'Another $10B taper, and it was unanimous. First in 2 1/2 years'.

Emerging markets may be volatile but the Federal Reserve could not change their taper line just a month after kicking it off.  That would acknowledge a real crisis.  And the unanimous voting?  Well, as I say above, the real positioning starts at the next meeting with Janet Yellen in charge. 

Policy visibility and coherence from the Fed going forward?  Maybe not.  And this is something the markets are going to have to get used to.  More volatility then. 

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